The hottest third national agricultural census rel

2022-08-15
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The third National Agricultural Census "released" agricultural plant protection UAV is a "small business"

the third national agricultural census learned from the National Bureau of statistics on the 14th that the main work of the third national agricultural census after three years has been basically completed. The office of the leading group for the third national agricultural census of the State Council and the National Bureau of statistics released the first communique on the main data of the three agricultural census on the 14th, and will release four communiques to disclose the main data in succession

the third national agricultural census is another census to find out the family background of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in China after the two national agricultural censuses in 1996 and 2006. The standard time point of sannongpu is December 31, 2016, and the period data is 2016

According to the first communique, a total of 31925 townships, 596450 villages, 3.17 million natural villages, and 150000 rural settlements newly built after 2006 were surveyed. At the end of 2016, the cultivated land area in China was 134921 thousand hectares; There are 31.42 million agricultural production and management personnel in China

According to xianzude, director of the General Agricultural Affairs Office of the State Council, the agricultural census has obtained a large amount of basic data reflecting the latest family background of China's agriculture, rural areas and farmers, found out the base number of major agricultural production such as grain, cotton, livestock and poultry, aquatic products, and systematically reflected the new changes in farmers and rural areas. At the same time, we have obtained information that is not covered by routine statistical surveys on agricultural large-scale operation, rural infrastructure and environment, which fills the statistical gap of various problems that will occur in the use process of agriculture, rural areas and farmers

the census results show that in the past decade, especially since the 18th CPC National Congress, major positive changes have taken place in the basic situation of China's agriculture, rural areas and farmers: the basic status of agriculture has been consolidated, and the level of agricultural modernization has been significantly improved; Modern rural construction has made remarkable achievements, the rural living environment has been continuously improved, and the rural landscape has taken on a new look; The living standards of farmers have been continuously improved. The census results also show that there are still some shortcomings in China's agriculture, rural areas and farmers, mainly including the low level of agricultural industrialization and the large gap between urban and rural development

set a small goal for the agricultural plant protection UAV, and do it for 100 million

in the past decade, it seems that the smartest people have invested in science and technology. Magical capital has made many big businesses, such as taxi, takeout, e-commerce, online video

but there are also many small businesses, and omnipotent capital seems to suddenly fail; There are also some that seem to be big businesses but actually make small businesses, such as meituan's acquisition of mobike not long ago. It is reported that most investors only get a return of 10%, slightly higher than yu'e Bao. I don't know whether this is a victory or a failure of capital

in just a decade, the thrust of capital has quickly stepped onto the altar and quickly faded. It was almost common sense to accelerate business with capital, but in recent years, when faced with capital or emerging industries, many industry operators have also entered confusion and wait-and-see

among the investment hotspots in the past few years, investors in vr/ar have almost been wiped out, and drones are also an area of capital failure. Except for Dajiang, none of them has a clear return prospect

when technological forces continue to develop in depth and fall in love with capital forces, there is such a law: in all industries with mature technologies and only waiting for market expansion, capital has a distinct accelerating effect, and even financing capacity has become the key to victory; However, in industries with immature technology or high technical barriers, the accelerating effect of capital completely disappears, and may even play a negative role

at a time when the investment in the UAV industry is getting colder, there are still countercyclical investors who believe that UAVs are about to explode rapidly in agriculture, industry and other fields. So is agricultural plant protection UAV a big business suitable for capital

if the technical logic and commercial logic of plant protection UAV are not clarified, this problem is a war of words

at present, the application of UAV in the agricultural field is mainly plant protection and pesticide application. The country has studied precision agriculture for many years. At present, only scientific and technological equipment such as UAV can be used for precision pesticide application. In terms of agricultural data collection, analysis and guidance, the country's most elite scientists in the agricultural field can be said to have worked for a whole generation, but they have only explored the general framework and have not yet stepped out of the experimental field

from now on, in the five to eight year investment period of general private equity funds, we can't see that agricultural data collection can form a revolutionary increase in production and efficiency. State subsidies and poverty alleviation support are still the main economic drivers in this field

therefore, in the period from May 7, holding the sample at the end of sensor 1 to eight years, talking about the capital value of agricultural UAV can only return to the field of plant protection

according to the data, the cultivated land suitable for UAV plant protection currently accounts for about one third of China's cultivated land, about 600 million mu, which is a very rough estimate. However, even according to this estimation, less than 10% of the land area is actually using UAVs for plant protection. The Mechanization Management Department of the Ministry of agriculture has informally released a very rough figure that the total scale of plant protection UAV operations in 2017 is about 80million mu. According to the calculation of three plant protection operations a year, the farmland covered by UAVs should be between 20million Mu and 30million mu

there is no doubt that this is a signal of blue ocean market. But as the logic mentioned above, this market development is slow. Is it because the technology is mature and lacks capital to help business promotion, or is the technology itself not enough to be fully popularized

Yue bin, a partner of Gaorong capital, made a point when talking about the commercialization of AI not long ago: the problem of AI commercialization is essentially that the technology is not good. For example, if face recognition can only find people in 100000 faces, it is only suitable for group companies; It can be used in small and medium-sized cities and large cities in the order of millions or tens of millions. It can be used in the whole province in the order of hundreds of millions, and it can be used in the population of the whole country only when the second level recognition of one billion faces is achieved

Yue bin means that when the technical specifications and technical level rise, the market will naturally become larger and the bottleneck of commercialization will be broken

to some extent, agricultural plant protection UAVs also face such problems. At present, it is not a concept for the agricultural plant protection market to break through 100 million mu times 100 million mu times and 100 million mu times. The problem to a large extent lies in that the market capacity, single machine technical level, cluster operation 4, the ability to regularly disconnect the power supply, are not up to the level of being competent for 100 million mu. Behind this, there is even the reason why the precision agriculture system is still in its infancy

in this process, the top two enterprises in the field of agricultural plant protection UAVs, Dajiang agriculture and Jifei technology expressed completely different views

in the latest press conference, Dajiang agriculture proposed the technical prospect of 40000 mu per year of single machine operation. Along this technical path, the mg-1p agricultural UAV launched in 2018 reached the operation index of 90 mu per hour, which is 50% higher than the previous generation of products. It is expected that customers of Dajiang agriculture can generally achieve the level of 10000 mu per year of single machine operation in 2018

in a recent press conference, Jifei technology announced brand transformation, not only operating plant protection UAV sales and plant protection services, but also stepping into the field of precision agriculture, operating data collection and analysis. It seems that its vision is to go ahead of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences

it is worth pondering that the innovative development of agriculture in Dajiang uses its own funds, and the consumer UAV market provides sufficient food and grass for Dajiang; Jifei technology actively seeks financing and believes that capital can promote agricultural science and technology

the right and wrong of these two views can only be judged by time

considering the large-scale investment of the state in the field of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, the unified prevention and control in the busy agricultural season does not even require farmers to pay. In theory, market promotion does not need more capital boost, and the national policy has stepped on the accelerator to the bottom. Then through capital acceleration, whether agricultural mechanization can take off in situ like these two drones is a question mark

technically, Dajiang may also be approaching its own limit. Before the Spring Festival, Dajiang agriculture promoted its thousand mu test video with great fanfare. According to the plant protection industry, this video is not only to promote and publicize the UAV performance of Dajiang agriculture, but also to provide guidance for investors and operators of plant protection teams who are new to the industry. The video shows how four plant protection team members used four Dajiang agricultural plant protection machines to complete the plant protection operation of 1000 mu of farmland in three and a half hours. Dajiang optimistically believes that the use of agricultural plant protection UAV Ground Station management, coupled with one control, multiple machines and other cluster technology, to popularize this operation method in various regions can cover more fields, and use technology to accelerate running into the era of 100 million mu

Dajiang agriculture seems to subconsciously express that before the technology vision of 40000 mu per unit is realized, it is the key to rely on experienced management and operation to give full play to the efficiency of tools as much as possible. Is this a fear of the future of technology? Also put a question mark

in the field of agricultural plant protection UAVs, looking forward from 80million Mu times in 2017, it seems reasonable to exceed 100 million mu times in 2018, but it is still a long way off to reach 100 million mu coverage from 20 to 30 million mu, that is, one sixth of the total cultivated land area suitable for UAV plant protection operations. There is no technical breakthrough or business model innovation in the field of agricultural UAVs, which shows that the growth rate of agricultural UAV market in 2018 will overturn 2017

if the agricultural plant protection UAV has reached the maturity level of 100 million mu in technology and business model, this figure should cover more than 100 million mu of farmland this year, and the UAV operation times exceed 300 million mu. This figure will be known before the winter of this year

in the era of no intelligence, it is impossible to create a drop with an investment of $15billion; In the intelligent era, there is probably no opportunity to challenge didi without $15billion. It is too early for capital and technology to fall in love with each other in the field of agricultural UAVs, and it may not even come at all. It is true that the current technology, business model and infrastructure support have undergone earth shaking changes compared with those before 2016, but the next tipping point driving the outbreak of the agricultural plant protection UAV market is not yet visible

the most optimistic estimate is that the precision agriculture system may be successful in a year or two. Drones patrol the air, import the data into the model, calculate the crop yield and economic benefits, and output it as a seed selection and planting guide that can guide farmers' practice

I'm afraid the most optimistic agricultural experts dare not make this guarantee

the slow, steady and gradually improving technology, the business model explored by pioneers or martyrs, and the objective laws of basic science and infrastructure restrict the agricultural UAV to be a small business

before the country steps on the accelerator in the field of agriculture, rural areas and farmers and runs a path of agricultural science and technology with Chinese characteristics, before the crop model and economic model surrounding agricultural big data are verified to be feasible, and before scientific research institutions or scientific and technological enterprises make revolutionary application breakthroughs, it is undoubtedly prescient to invest heavily in agriculture, but we should also be prepared to be willing to be lonely and take risks

who will turn the small business of agricultural drones into a big business? Wait and see

well, this is the relevant content of the third national agricultural census agricultural plant protection UAV. Thank you for watching

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